- The Weekly Tap
- Posts
- UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Ribas 2 Predictions
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Ribas 2 Predictions
The UFC returns in 2024 with a solid card to kick things off. While it may not be the most stacked lineup, it's a good appetizer to whet our appetites for the upcoming year, especially with the highly anticipated UFC 311 just a week away. This marks the official launch of my newsletter, where I'll be diving deep into the action, breaking down matchups, and sharing my bold predictions. Let's see how this first card of the year unfolds! Only going to break down the main card below:

Punahele Soriano vs Uroš Medić
Punahele Soriano: The Hawaiian powerhouse is known for his explosive knockout power. He possesses devastating hands and a relentless pressure style that can overwhelm opponents. However, Soriano has shown some defensive vulnerabilities and can be susceptible to takedowns.
Uroš Medić: The Serbian striker is a technical and calculated fighter with a strong jab and a diverse striking arsenal. He's known for his accuracy and ability to pick his shots. Medić is also a skilled grappler with solid takedown defense.
Prediction:
This fight has the potential to be a thrilling back-and-forth battle.
If it stays on the feet: Medić's precision striking and movement could give him an edge. Soriano will need to close the distance and land that powerful punch to stop Medić.
If the fight hits the ground: Medić likely has the advantage due to his grappling skills and takedown defense.
My Prediction: I'm leaning towards Uroš Medić to win by decision. I believe his technical striking and grappling acumen will be the difference-maker.
Christian Rodriguez vs Austin Bashi
Christian Rodriguez: A seasoned veteran with a knack for finishing fights. Rodriguez possesses decent striking but excels in grappling, boasting a strong submission game.
Austin Bashi: A promising prospect making his UFC debut. Bashi is a well-rounded fighter with a solid base in wrestling and a developing striking game. He's known for his aggressive style and relentless pressure.
Prediction:
This fight hinges on which fighter can impose their will.
If Rodriguez can secure a takedown: He likely has the advantage on the ground, potentially submitting Bashi.
If the fight remains standing: Bashi's aggression and pressure could overwhelm Rodriguez.
My Prediction: This is a tough one to call. Bashi's youth and aggression make him a dangerous opponent, but Rodriguez's grappling experience could be the deciding factor. I'm going to give a slight edge to Christian Rodriguez via submission.
Chris Curtis vs Roman Kopylov - Fight to watch!
Chris Curtis vs. Roman Kopylov matchup is a really intriguing one! Here's a breakdown:
Chris Curtis: "Action Man" is a veteran with a ton of heart and a never-quit attitude. He's a tough out for anyone at 185 pounds, known for his durability and ability to absorb punishment. Curtis is a solid striker with decent grappling skills.
Roman Kopylov: A rising contender with a powerful striking game. Kopylov is known for his heavy hands and aggressive fighting style. He's a dangerous knockout artist with a strong wrestling base.
Prediction:
This fight has the potential to be a real banger.
If it stays on the feet: Kopylov likely has the advantage with his power and aggression.
If the fight hits the ground: Curtis's grappling experience could give him an edge.
My Prediction: This is a very close fight. Kopylov's power striking makes him the slight favorite, but Curtis's toughness and experience could surprise. I'm going to predict a Kopylov victory by decision, but I wouldn't be surprised if Curtis pulls off an upset.
Cesar Almeida vs Abdul Razak Alhassan
Cesar Almeida: A well-rounded fighter with a strong wrestling base and a developing striking game. He's known for his grappling prowess and ability to control the pace of the fight.
Abdul Razak Alhassan: A knockout artist with devastating power in his hands. "The Ragin' Alhassan" is known for his explosive striking and ability to finish fights quickly.
Prediction:
This fight hinges on whether Alhassan can land one of his powerful strikes.
If Alhassan connects early: The fight could be over quickly.
If Almeida can survive the initial onslaught and take the fight to the ground: He could control the pace and potentially submit Alhassan.
My Prediction: This is a tough one to call. Alhassan's knockout power makes him a dangerous opponent, but Almeida's grappling skills could be the key to victory. I'm going to give a slight edge to Cesar Almeida via submission
Co-Main: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Carlston Harris
Santiago Ponzinibbio: "The Argentine Dagger" was once a rising star, known for his explosive striking and devastating knockout power. However, he's faced some recent setbacks and needs a win to get back on track. Ponzinibbio possesses excellent striking skills, particularly his kicks.
Carlston Harris: A powerful striker with a strong wrestling base. Harris is known for his aggressive pressure and ability to land heavy shots. He's a dangerous opponent with a relentless forward pressure.
Prediction:
This fight has the potential to be a firefight.
If it stays on the feet: Harris's pressure and power could be a problem for Ponzinibbio.
If Ponzinibbio can utilize his striking effectively and keep the fight standing: He has the potential to land a knockout blow.
My Prediction: This is a very close fight. Harris's aggression and pressure make him a dangerous opponent. However, I believe Ponzinibbio's striking skills could be the difference-maker. I'm going to predict a Ponzinibbio victory by decision
Main Event: Mackenzie Dern vs Amanda Ribas 2
Mackenzie Dern:
Strengths:
World-class Jiu-Jitsu: Dern's grappling pedigree is undeniable. She's a submission specialist with a knack for finding submissions from various positions.
Improved Striking: Dern has shown consistent improvement in her striking, adding power and precision to her arsenal.
Mental Fortitude: Dern has demonstrated a strong mental game, bouncing back from setbacks and consistently pushing herself to evolve.
Weaknesses:
Striking Defense: While improved, Dern can still be hittable, and her striking defense remains an area for improvement.
Pace Control: Dern can sometimes struggle to dictate the pace of the fight, allowing opponents to dictate the terms of engagement.
Amanda Ribas:
Strengths:
Well-Rounded Skillset: Ribas is a very well-rounded fighter with solid striking, grappling, and wrestling.
Aggression and Pressure: Ribas fights with a relentless pace and pressure, constantly pushing her opponents back.
High Fight IQ: Ribas is a highly intelligent fighter who adapts well to her opponent's strategies.
Weaknesses:
Submission Defense: While improved, Ribas' submission defense remains a potential area of concern against a world-class grappler like Dern.
Power: Ribas lacks significant knockout power in her strikes.
Stylistic Matchup:
This matchup presents a fascinating contrast of styles. Dern will likely look to close the distance, control the clinch, and eventually transition to the ground where she can unleash her submission game. Ribas, on the other hand, will aim to keep the fight standing, utilize her movement and striking to outpoint Dern, and potentially look for takedowns of her own.
Keys to Victory:
Dern:
Avoid getting drawn into a striking battle: Dern needs to be disciplined and avoid prolonged exchanges on the feet.
Early takedowns and clinch control: Securing early takedowns and maintaining control in the clinch will be crucial for Dern to impose her will.
Exploit any openings in Ribas' submission defense: Dern needs to be patient and opportunistic, looking for openings to secure a submission.
Ribas:
Keep the fight standing: Ribas must maintain distance and avoid being taken down by Dern.
Land significant strikes and maintain a high pace: Ribas needs to land clean strikes and keep Dern off balance with her movement and pressure.
Exploit any openings in Dern's striking defense: If Ribas can land clean shots and hurt Dern, she can potentially force a finish.
My Prediction: Dern by Submission!