UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Imavov Predictions

This weekend's UFC Fight Night is stacked! Headlining the event is Israel Adesanya in his first non-title, non-PPV fight in years. With other exciting matchups, including MVP and Shara Bullet let's dive into the card and break down my predictions on some key fights.

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Main + Prelims

• Israel Adesanya vs Nassourdine Imavov

• Shara Magomedov vs Michael Page

• Sergei Pavlovich vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik

• Said Nurmagomedov vs Vinicius Oliveira

• Fares Ziam vs Mike Davis

• Muhammad Naimov vs Kaan Ofli

Prelim Matches:

• Shamil Gaziev vs Thomas Petersen

• Terrance McKinney vs Damir Hadzovic

• Jasmine Jasudavicius vs Mayra Bueno Silva

• Bogdan Grad vs Lucas Alexander

• Hamdy Abdelwahab vs Jamal Pogues

Fares Ziam vs Mike Davis

Not on the main card but with an intriguing lightweight clash between Fares Ziam and Mike Davis on the prelim, it is worth diving into. Both fighters are primarily known for their striking, but Davis also possesses a strong wrestling game, adding an interesting layer to this matchup.

Ziam is entering this bout with momentum, having secured two victories in 2024, including a brutal knockout. Davis, while having only one fight in 2024 (a submission win), demonstrated his well-rounded skillset. Davis has had a more sporadic UFC career, but his potential was evident from his impressive showing on the Tiger Muay Thai tryouts years ago.

Prediction:

This is a very close fight. Ziam's recent wins give him momentum, but Davis's wrestling could be a crucial factor.

  • If it stays standing: Ziam might have a slight edge in striking.

  • If Davis can utilize his wrestling: He could control the fight and secure a victory.

My Prediction: This is a true pick 'em. I'm leaning slightly towards Mike Davis by decision. His wrestling could be the deciding factor.

Said Nurmagomedov vs Vinicius Olivera

Said Nurmagomedov vs. Vinicius Oliveira is an intriguing bantamweight clash. Nurmagomedov, returns to action after a layoff since 2023, raising questions about ring rust. Oliveira, on the other hand, is riding high after a stellar 2024, going 2-0 with two finishes, including a potential Knockout of the Year contender with a flying knee. This fight pits the well-rounded skills of Nurmagomedov against the explosive momentum of Oliveira.

Prediction:

This fight presents a classic clash of momentum versus potential.

  • If Nurmagomedov is sharp: He could use his well-rounded game to control the fight and potentially neutralize Oliveira's explosiveness. His wrestling and grappling could be key.

  • If Oliveira's momentum carries over: He could capitalize on any potential ring rust from Nurmagomedov and look to land another devastating blow. His striking power is a major threat. Plus his amount of finishes comparer to Said shows he knows how to finish the fight.

My Prediction: While Nurmagomedov has the potential to win, Oliveira's recent performances and finishing power are hard to ignore. Given the momentum and Oliveira's knack for finishes, I'm siding with Vinicius Oliveira via TKO.

Sergei Pavlovich vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Sergei Pavlovich vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik is a pivotal heavyweight matchup with significant implications for the division. Pavlovich, once a surging contender with knockout power that had the heavyweight division on notice, has unfortunately stumbled in his last two outings. Prior to these losses against Aspinall and Alexander Volkov, Pavlovich was a force of nature, ripping through the competition with six consecutive first-round KO finishes. He looked like a future title challenger, unstoppable and possessing the kind of raw power that could end any fight in an instant. However, his momentum was abruptly halted, first by Aspinall (who finished him quickly) and then by Volkov in a fight that may have carried extra emotional weight given their prior relationship. Now, Pavlovich finds himself at a crossroads, needing a win to regain his footing in the division.

On the other side, we have Jairzinho Rozenstruik, a veteran UFC competitor since 2019. Rozenstruik's career has been marked by inconsistency, often following a win with a loss. He hasn't quite been able to string together the kind of winning streak needed to propel him to the top of the heavyweight rankings. However, a victory over Pavlovich would be huge for Rozenstruik, potentially putting him on a three-fight win streak and firmly placing him in the conversation for a top-5 contender spot. This fight represents a massive opportunity for both men, one to reclaim his former glory and the other to finally establish himself as a true heavyweight threat.

Prediction:

This fight is a difficult one to call, but I'm leaning towards Pavlovich.

  • If Pavlovich can rediscover his form: He possesses devastating power that could end the fight quickly. His previous run of knockouts is a testament to his capabilities.

  • If Rozenstruik can weather the early storm: He has the experience and striking ability to capitalize on any openings. However, his susceptibility to knockdowns is a concern.

My Prediction: I think Pavlovich will get back on track in this fight. He has something to prove, and at only 32, he's still in his prime. Rozenstruik has shown vulnerabilities against powerful strikers, and I believe Pavlovich will exploit that. I'm predicting a Sergei Pavlovich victory by KO in the first round

Co-Main: Shara Magomedov vs Michael Page

Shara "The Pirate" Magomedov vs. Michael "Venom" Page is undoubtedly the most anticipated and potentially explosive fight on this card. Both fighters are known for their dynamic striking styles and penchant for highlight-reel finishes. Magomedov has been a breath of fresh air in the middleweight division since joining the UFC in 2023. Despite only having one eye and being restricted to fighting outside the US, Magomedov has quickly become a fan favorite. His unique style and ability to deliver spectacular knockouts, like his unforgettable double spinning back fist finish last year (a knockout I've never seen in all my years of watching MMA), make him must-see TV. That kind of creativity and finishing ability is what captivates audiences and builds a fighter's reputation.

On the other side, we have Michael "Venom" Page, a highly touted MMA vet, while exciting, hasn't quite lived up to the hype in his UFC tenure so far. Prior to joining the UFC, Page showcased incredible finishes, from skull-fracturing flying knees to flash knockouts with his unorthodox karate style. He's known for his showmanship and ability to frustrate opponents into making mistakes. However, his UFC record stands at 1-1, and his performances haven't been as dominant as many expected. It raises questions about whether age is catching up to him, or if the level of competition in the UFC is simply higher than what he faced in Bellator. His loss to Ian Garry was largely uneventful, and his victory over Kevin Holland, while a win, was criticized by some fans due to his unusual style.

Prediction:

This fight is a clash of styles and experience.

  • If Magomedov can maintain his aggressive pace and utilize his unorthodox striking: He could overwhelm Page and find a finish.

  • If Page can find his rhythm and avoid Magomedov's power shots: He could use his reach and movement to outpoint Magomedov.

My Prediction: As much as I appreciate MVP's style, I'm leaning towards Magomedov in this matchup. Magomedov has shown grit, accuracy, and a knack for pulling off the unexpected. He's also been more active recently. This is a fight where either fighter could secure a knockout, but I think Magomedov's recent form and age give him the edge. I'm predicting a Shara Magomedov victory by decision.

Main Event: Israel Adesanya vs Nassourdine Imavov

The main event features a highly anticipated middleweight clash between Israel Adesanya and Nassourdine Imavov. This is an intriguing matchup, and not one I necessarily saw Adesanya taking. Adesanya is coming off a couple of losses where, frankly, he didn't look like his usual self. The Adesanya who fought Kelvin Gastelum or the Adesanya who knocked out Paulo Costa seems like a different fighter compared to the one who faced Dricus Du Plessis and Sean Strickland. However, Adesanya has been in camp, looks refreshed, and appears to be in excellent shape based on his YouTube vlogs from City Kickboxing. He seems prepared for all aspects of the fight, even if it means wrestling

Imavov, currently ranked #5, is riding a wave of momentum with three wins last year. This is a massive opportunity for him. A victory over Adesanya would not only put him on the map but also likely catapult him into title contention.  

Prediction:

While Adesanya is on a two-fight losing streak, Imavov also lost to Strickland.

  • If Adesanya is back to his old self: His technical striking, experience in five-round fights, and overall fight IQ should give him the edge.

  • If Imavov can capitalize on any lingering weaknesses in Adesanya's game: He has the opportunity to pull off a huge win and establish himself as a top contender.

My Prediction: Despite the losses, I believe Adesanya will bounce back in this fight. He's shown he knows how to win over five rounds and on the scorecards. I would love to see a vintage Adesanya knockout, but I'm predicting a Israel Adesanya victory by decision. I'm hoping to see a revitalized Adesanya return and reclaim his place at the top of the division

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